Impact of palmiped farm density on the resilience of the poultry sector to highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N8 in France.

We analysed the interplay between palmiped farm density and the vulnerability of the poultry production system to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N8. To do so, we used a spatially-explicit transmission model, which was calibrated to reproduce the observed spatio-temporal distribution of outbreaks in France during the 2016-2017 epidemic of HPAI. Six scenarios were investigated, in which the density of palmiped farms was decreased in the municipalities with the highest palmiped farm density. For each of the six scenarios, we first calculated the spatial distribution of the basic reproduction number (R0), i.e. the expected number of farms a particular farm would be likely to infect, should all other farms be susceptible. We also ran in silico simulations of the adjusted model for each scenario to estimate epidemic sizes and time-varying effective reproduction numbers. We showed that reducing palmiped farm density in the densest municipalities decreased substantially the size of the areas with high R0 values (> 1.5). In silico simulations suggested that reducing palmiped farm density, even slightly, in the densest municipalities was expected to decrease substantially the number of affected poultry farms and therefore provide benefits to the poultry sector as a whole. However, they also suggest that it would not have been sufficient, even in combination with the intervention measures implemented during the 2016-2017 epidemic, to completely prevent the virus from spreading. Therefore, the effectiveness of alternative structural preventive approaches now needs to be assessed, including flock size reduction and targeted vaccination.

Two major epidemics of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus H5N8 and H5N1 in domestic poultry in France, 2020-2022.

The spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses worldwide has serious consequences for animal health and a major economic impact on the poultry production sector. Since 2014, Europe has been severely hit by several HPAI epidemics, with France being the most affected country. Most recently, France was again affected by two devastating HPAI epidemics in 2020-21 and 2021-22. We conducted a descriptive analysis of the 2020-21 and 2021-22 epidemics, as a first step towards identifying the poultry sector's remaining vulnerabilities regarding HPAI viruses in France. We examined the spatio-temporal distribution of outbreaks that occurred in France in 2020-21 and 2021-22, and we assessed the outbreaks' spatial distribution in relation to the 2016-17 epidemic and to the two 'high-risk zones' recently incorporated into French legislation to strengthen HPAI prevention and control. There were 468 reported outbreaks during the 2020-21 epidemic and 1375 outbreaks during the 2021-22 epidemic. In both epidemics, the outbreaks' distribution matched extremely well that of 2016-17, and most outbreaks (80.6% and 68.4%) were located in the two high-risk zones. The southwestern high-risk zone was affected in both epidemics, while the western high-risk zone was affected for the first time in 2021-22, explaining the extremely high number of outbreaks reported. As soon as the virus reached the high-risk zones, it started to spread between farms at very high rates, with each infected farm infecting between two and three other farms at the peaks of transmission. We showed that the spatial distribution model used to create the two high-risk zones was able to predict the location of outbreaks for the 2020-21 and 2021-22 epidemics. These zones were characterized by high poultry farm densities; future efforts should, therefore, focus on reducing the density of susceptible poultry in highly dense areas.

Multiple independent introductions of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5 viruses during the 2020-2021 epizootic in France.

During winter 2020-2021, France and other European countries were severely affected by highly pathogenic avian influenza H5 viruses of the Gs/GD/96 lineage, clade 2.3.4.4b. In total, 519 cases occurred, mainly in domestic waterfowl farms in Southwestern France. Analysis of viral genomic sequences indicated that 3 subtypes of HPAI H5 viruses were detected (H5N1, H5N3, H5N8), but most French viruses belonged to the H5N8 subtype genotype A, as Europe. Phylogenetic analyses of HPAI H5N8 viruses revealed that the French sequences were distributed in 9 genogroups, suggesting 9 independent introductions of H5N8 from wild birds, in addition to the 2 introductions of H5N1 and H5N3.

Role of Live-Duck Movement Networks in Transmission of Avian Influenza, France, 2016-2017.

The relative roles that movement and proximity networks play in the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses are often unknown during an epidemic, preventing effective control. We used network analysis to explore the devastating epidemic of HPAI A(H5N8) among poultry, in particular ducks, in France during 2016-2017 and to estimate the likely contribution of live-duck movements. Approximately 0.2% of live-duck movements could have been responsible for between-farm transmission events, mostly early during the epidemic. Results also suggest a transmission risk of 35.5% when an infected holding moves flocks to another holding within 14 days before detection. Finally, we found that densely connected groups of holdings with sparse connections between groups overlapped farmer organizations, which represents important knowledge for surveillance design. This study highlights the importance of movement bans in zones affected by HPAI and of understanding transmission routes to develop appropriate HPAI control strategies.

Impact of stakeholders influence, geographic level and risk perception on strategic decisions in simulated foot and mouth disease epizootics in France.

Comparison of control strategies against animal infectious diseases allows determining optimal strategies according to their epidemiological and/or economic impacts. However, in real life, the choice of a control strategy does not always obey a pure economic or epidemiological rationality. The objective of this study was to analyze the choice of a foot and mouth disease (FMD) control strategy as a decision-making process in which the decision-maker is influenced by several stakeholders (government, agro-food industries, public opinion). For each of these, an indicator of epizootic impact was quantified to compare seven control strategies. We then determined how, in France, the optimal control strategy varied according to the relative weights of stakeholders and to the perception of risk by the decision-maker (risk-neutral/risk-averse). When the scope of decision was national, whatever their perception of risk and the stakeholders' weights, decision-makers chose a strategy based on vaccination. This consensus concealed marked differences between regions, which were connected with the regional breeding characteristics. Vaccination-based strategies were predominant in regions with dense cattle and swine populations, and in regions with a dense population of small ruminants, combined with a medium density of cattle and swine. These differences between regions suggested that control strategies could be usefully adapted to local breeding conditions. We then analyzed the feasibility of adaptive decision-making processes depending on the date and place where the epizootic starts, or on the evolution of the epizootic over time. The initial conditions always explained at least half of the variance of impacts, the remaining variance being attributed to the variability of epizootics evolution. However, the first weeks of this evolution explained a large part of the impacts variability. Although the predictive value of the initial conditions for determining the optimal strategy was weak, adaptive strategies changing dynamically according to the evolution of the epizootic appeared feasible.